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The Journal of Cardiovascular Surgery 2015 August;56(4):647-54

Copyright © 2015 EDIZIONI MINERVA MEDICA

lingua: Inglese

Predictors of long-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis undergoing cardiac surgery

Lopez-Delgado J. C. 1, Esteve F. 1, Javierre C. 2, Torrado H. 1, Carrio M. L. 1, Rodríguez-Castro D. 1, Farrero E. 1, Lluís Ventura J. 1, Manez R. 1

1 Hospital Universitari de Bellvitge, Intensive Care Department, IDIBELL, (Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica Bellvitge), L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain; 2 Physiological Sciences Department II, Universitat de Barcelona, IDIBELL, Barcelona, Spain


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AIM: Little is known regarding the long-term outcome in cirrhotic patients undergoing cardiac surgery. The objective of this study was to identify preoperative and postoperative mortality risk factors and to determine the best predictors of long-term outcome.
METHODS: Fifty-eight consecutive cirrhotic patients requiring cardiac surgery between January 2004 and January 2009 were prospectively studied at our institution. Seven patients (12%) died. A complete follow-up was performed in the whole survival group until November 2012 (mean 46±28 months). Variables usually measured on admission and during the first 24 h of the postoperative period were evaluated together with cardiac surgery scores (Parsonnet, EuroSCORE), liver scores (Child-Turcotte-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, United Kingdom End-Stage Liver Disease score), and ICU scores (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and III, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and III, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment).
RESULTS: Twelve patients (23.5%) died during follow-up; six were Child class A and six class B. Comparing survivors vs. non-survivors using univariate analysis, variables associated with better long-term outcome were lower arterial lactate 24 h after admission (1.7±0.4 vs. 2.1±0.7 mmol·L-1, P=0.03) and higher urine output in the first 24 h (2029±512 vs. 1575±627 mL, P=0.03). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the Simplified Acute Physiology Score III score had the best predictive value for long-term outcome (AUC: 77.4±0.76%; sensitivity: 83.3%; specificity: 64.9%, P=0.005). Multivariate analysis identified Simplified Acute Physiology Score III score (P=0.02) and urine output in the first 24 h (P=0.02) as independent factors associated with long-term outcome. Long-term survival was 82.4% for Child A, 47.6% for Child B and 33.3% for Child C (P=0.001).
CONCLUSION: Long-term survival in cirrhotic patients requiring cardiac surgery is a more valuable prognostic measure than short-term survival. Urine output in the first 24 h may be a valuable predictor of long-term outcome in these patients. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score III is also useful.

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