ORIGINAL ARTICLE   

Minerva Respiratory Medicine 2023 March;62(1):25-32

DOI: 10.23736/S2784-8477.22.02007-1

Copyright © 2022 EDIZIONI MINERVA MEDICA

language: English

A new logistic regression derived combined index for early prediction of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients

Stefania BASSU ¹ ✉, Elena MASOTTO ², Chiara SANNA ², Verdiana MUSCAS ², Dario ARGIOLAS ², Ciriaco CARRU ¹, Pietro PIRINA ², Arduino A. MANGONI ^{3, 4}, Panagiotis PALIOGIANNIS ², Alessandro G. FOIS ², Angelo ZINELLU ¹

¹ Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy; ² Department of Medical, Surgical and Experimental Medicine, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy; ³ Discipline of Clinical Pharmacology, College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia; ⁴ Department of Clinical Pharmacology, Flinders Medical Centre, Southern Adelaide Local Health Network, Adelaide, Australia

BACKGROUND: While the type and the number of treatments for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have substantially evolved since the start of the pandemic a significant number of hospitalized patients continue to succumb. This requires ongoing research in the development and improvement of early risk stratification tools.
METHODS: We developed a prognostic score using epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and treatment variables collected on admission in 130 adult COVID-19 patients followed until in-hospital death (N.=38) or discharge (N.=92). Potential variables were selected via multivariable logistic regression modelling conducted using a logistic regression univariate analysis to create a combined index.
RESULTS: Age, Charlson Comorbidity Index, P/F ratio, prothrombin time, C-reactive protein and troponin were the selected variables. AUROC indicated that the model had an excellent AUC value (0.971, 95% CI 0.926 to 0.993) with 100% sensitivity and 83% specificity for in-hospital mortality. The Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration test yielded non-significant P values (χ²=1.79, P=0.99) indicates good calibration.
CONCLUSIONS: This newly developed combined index could be useful to predict mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients on admission.

KEY WORDS: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Respiratory insufficiency; Hospital mortality