ORIGINAL ARTICLE   

Minerva Gastroenterologica e Dietologica 2019 March;65(1):11-9

DOI: 10.23736/S1121-421X.18.02534-5

Copyright © 2018 EDIZIONI MINERVA MEDICA

language: English

Liver stiffness-based model for portal hypertension and hepatocellular cancer risk in HBV responsive to antivirals

Alfredo MARZANO, Alessandra TUCCI, Claudia CHIALÀ ✉, Giorgio M. SARACCO, Maurizio FADDA, Wilma DEBERNARDI VENON

Division of Gastroenterology, AOU Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino, San Giovanni Battista Hospital, University of Turin, Turin, Italy

BACKGROUND: In hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis the antiviral therapy reduces portal hypertension (PH) and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study assessed the prognostic role of LSPS Score (liver stiffness value X spleen diameter/platelet count) in predicting these goals in cirrhotic patients responsive to antiviral therapy.
METHODS: The correlation between LSPS, PH, esophageal varices (EVs) and HCC was evaluated in 121 cirrhotic patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs). Sixty-one patients (50.4%) had PH at baseline. All were HBV DNA negative on-treatment. They were evaluated after a median of 8 years of therapy (1-17) for LSPS, PH, hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), EVs and HCC.
RESULTS: LSPS ≤0.62 and ≤1.4 identified patients without PH measured by HVPG (<6 mmHg, NPV=100%) and EVs (PPV 63.3%, NPV 93.7%), respectively. After antiviral therapy LSPS≤0.62 was detected in 51.3% of the patients (16.4% and 76.6% of subjects with and without PH at baseline, P<0.0001). HCC developed in 26 patients (21.5%, 2.6%-year) with a higher incidence in patients with LSPS>0.62 after antiviral therapy (36% vs. 7%, P<0.001). On multivariate analysis LSPS post-therapy and PH at baseline were the only independent predictors of HCC (OR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.02-1.28, P=0.02 and OR: 1.70; 95% CI:1-2.86, P=0.04 respectively).
CONCLUSIONS: LSPS is useful to identify patients with regression of PH and EVs, avoiding endoscopy. LSPS≤0.62 at baseline or due to antiviral therapy is associated with a lower risk of HCC. Early antiviral treatment is recommended in order to maintain or to induce LSPS≤0.62.

KEY WORDS: Liver cirrhosis - Hepatitis B - Hypertension, portal - Carcinoma, hepatocellular