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A Journal on Cardiac, Vascular and Thoracic Surgery

Indexed/Abstracted in: BIOSIS Previews, Current Contents/Clinical Medicine, EMBASE, PubMed/MEDLINE, Science Citation Index Expanded (SciSearch), Scopus
Impact Factor 1,632

Frequency: Bi-Monthly

ISSN 0021-9509

Online ISSN 1827-191X


The Journal of Cardiovascular Surgery 2011 December;52(6):863-71



Risk stratification of coronary revascularization patients by using clinical and angiographic data

Goto M. 1, Kohsaka S. 2, Lee V.-V. 3, Elayda M. A. 3, Aoki N. 4, Wilson J. M. 3

1 Kyoto University Health Service, Kyoto, Japan;
2 Division of Cardiology, Columbia University, ,New York, NY, USA;
3 Texas Heart Institute at St. Luke’s Episcopal Hospital and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA;
4 The University of Texas School of Health Information Sciences, Houston, TX, USA

AIM: Patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are still at a substantial risk of death after their procedures. A core group of preoperative and preprocedural risk factors and conditions contributes the majority of inherent mid- and long-term mortality risk in these patients. Therefore, we sought to develop a classification tree model as a practical and user-friendly method of predicting mid-term survival after coronary revascularization procedures.
METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed data from a single, large-volume institution. Specifically, we examined all-cause three-year mortality in 3387 consecutive patients with multivessel or single proximal left anterior descending coronary artery disease who underwent either PCI with stenting or CABG.
RESULTS: Recursive partitioning indicated that the best single predictor of death within three years was a history of heart failure (HF), followed by a proximal left circumflex artery (pLCX) lesion and age greater than 65 years for patients with and without a history of HF, respectively. With these variables, patients were readily stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups whose risks of death over three years ranged from 2.3% to 36.2%. Among patients with a history of HF, pLCX stenosis was an independent predictor of mid-term mortality after adjustment for other known risk factors (hazard ratio, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.04-2.03).
CONCLUSION: The constructed risk stratification scheme stratified patients into groups at low, intermediate, and high risk of death within three years. Stenosis of the pLCX seems to be an important prognostic factor for patients with a history of HF.

language: English


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