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THE JOURNAL OF CARDIOVASCULAR SURGERY
A Journal on Cardiac, Vascular and Thoracic Surgery
Indexed/Abstracted in: BIOSIS Previews, Current Contents/Clinical Medicine, EMBASE, PubMed/MEDLINE, Science Citation Index Expanded (SciSearch), Scopus
Impact Factor 1,632
ORIGINAL ARTICLES VASCULAR SECTION
The Journal of Cardiovascular Surgery 2001 August;42(4):517-24
A preoperative index of mortality for patients undergoing surgery of type A aortic dissection
Spirito R., Pompilio G., Alamanni F., Agrifoglio M., Dainese L., Parolari A., Reali M., Grillo F., Fusari M., Biglioli P.
From the Department of Cardiovascular Surgery University of Milan, Cardiological Center “I Monzino” Foundation, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
Background. The aim of this study was to identify and stratify the most important preoperative factors for in-hospital death after surgery for type A aortic dissection.
Methods. From January 1985 to June 1998, 108 patients underwent surgery for type A aortic dissection. 89.9% of the patients had an acute type A dissection (AD), whereas 11.1% had a chronic dissection (CD). Cardiac tamponade and shock occurred in 22% and 14.8% of the patients, respectively. The location of the primary intimal tear was in the ascending aorta in 71.2% of the cases, in the arch in 16.6% and in the descending aorta in 7.4%. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify non-embolic variables independently correlated to in-hospital death. A predictive model of in-hospital mortality was then constructed by means of a mathematical method with the variables selected from logistic regression analysis.
Results. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 20.3% (22/108 patients), being 9% for CD and 21.6% for AD. Emergent procedures had an in-hospital mortality rate of 47.6%, whereas non-emergent operations had an in-hospital mortality rate of 13.7% (p<0.01). Univariate analysis revealed among 39 preoperative and operative variables, age (years), age >70 years, remote myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular dysfunction, diabetes, preoperative renal failure, shock, cardiopulmonary bypass time (minutes), emergency operation as factors associated to in-hospital death (p<0.05). Stepwise logistic regression analysis selected as independent predicting variables (p<0.05), remote myocardial infarction (p=0.006), preoperative renal failure (p=0.032), shock (p=0.001), age >70 years (p=0.007). Finally, a probability table of death risk was obtained with the logistic regression coefficients. The lower death probability (10.6%) was calculated in absence of risk variables; the higher one in presence of all of them (79.7%). Between these extremes, a total of 64 combinations of death risk were obtained.
Conclusions. Increasing age, shock, coronary artery disease and renal failure are variously associated to a high risk of in-hospital death after surgical correction of type A aortic dissection. This predictive model of death probability allows to collocate preoperatively patients with type A aortic dissection at different levels of risk for in-hospital death.